Continuity and Change in the 20th and 21st Centuries

By the end of this lesson, students will be able to:

• Argue, using diverse and alternative evidence, the substantial twentieth- and twenty-first-century European continuities and changes (Skill 6.D; LO P).
• Identify the principal continuities of the 1945-present European trajectory: the long-running secularization in Western Europe; the substantial continuous welfare-state expansion; the substantial trans-European integration trajectory; the substantial decolonization-to-immigration continuity; the substantial Western European cultural-political tradition through 1968 and beyond.
• Identify the principal discontinuities of the 1945-present European trajectory: the substantial 1945 rupture in European international primacy; the substantial 1968 cultural mobilization; the substantial 1989-1991 Eastern bloc collapse; the substantial post-2008 financial crisis; the substantial post-2015 migration crisis and the substantial 2016 Brexit referendum.
• Construct a substantial Skill 6.D modified argument that corroborates, qualifies, or modifies an initial position using diverse evidence drawn from across the substantial Unit 9 content.
• Connect Topic 9.15's synthesis to the broader AP Euro Period 4 (c. 1914 - present) framework that combines Unit 8's twentieth-century world wars with Unit 9's substantial Cold War and contemporary European trajectory.
• Account for the substantial twenty-first-century European challenges (the substantial post-2008 economic crisis; the substantial 2010s migration crisis; the substantial 2015-onward right-wing populist mobilization; the substantial 2020-2022 pandemic and Russian-Ukraine war disruptions) within the broader unit-wide narrative.

Topic 9.15 synthesizes the substantial Unit 9 narrative across the eight CED key concepts that anchor the synthesis (KC-4.1, KC-4.1.IV, KC-4.1.V, KC-4.2, KC-4.3, KC-4.3.I.ii, KC-4.4, KC-4.4.III). The synthesis is structured in five interlocking parts: the Cold War polarization and its substantial 1989-1991 collapse (KC-4.1, KC-4.1.IV); the postwar European nationalism, ethnic conflict, and broader twentieth-century identity contestation (KC-4.1.V); the substantial postwar economic-and-state transformation (KC-4.2); the substantial twentieth- and twenty-first-century cultural and intellectual reorganization (KC-4.3, KC-4.3.I.ii); and the substantial twentieth- and twenty-first-century social, economic, demographic, and civil-rights transformation (KC-4.4, KC-4.4.III).

Cold War polarization and its 1989-1991 collapse (KC-4.1, KC-4.1.IV). The principal Unit 9 narrative axis runs from the 1945 Allied victory and the substantial subsequent emergence of the bipolar U.S.-Soviet Cold War order through the substantial 1989-1991 Eastern bloc collapse. The principal Cold War flashpoints (Topic 9.3 covered) include the 1948-1949 Berlin blockade and airlift; the 1949 NATO formation and 1955 Warsaw Pact formation; the 1953 Korean War armistice; the 1956 Hungarian Revolution and Suez Crisis; the 13 August 1961 Berlin Wall construction; the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis; the 1968 Prague Spring suppression; the 1973-1979 detente period; the 1979-1989 substantial late Cold War tensions and the substantial Soviet-Afghan war; the 1985 Mikhail Gorbachev's accession and the substantial perestroika and glasnost reforms; the substantial 1989 Eastern European revolutions (Polish June 1989 partly free elections; Hungarian May-November 1989 transition; East German October-November 1989 mobilization and the 9 November 1989 Berlin Wall opening; Czechoslovak November 1989 Velvet Revolution; Romanian December 1989 violent revolution); the 3 October 1990 German reunification; and the 25 December 1991 Soviet dissolution. The cumulative substantial 1945-1991 Cold War trajectory anchors KC-4.1.IV's "After WWII a bipolar order emerged...."

The post-1991 European international order substantially reorganized. The principal substantial post-1991 features include the substantial 1990 Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) Charter of Paris that articulated the principal post-Cold War European framework; the substantial 1991-1995 Yugoslav wars (Topic 9.5 covered); the substantial 1999 Kosovo War and NATO intervention; the substantial 1999, 2004, and 2020 NATO enlargements (substantially incorporating former Warsaw Pact members); the substantial 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea and the subsequent 2014-2022 substantial Donbas war; the substantial 24 February 2022 Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent substantial 2022-onward European security reorganization (Sweden and Finland joining NATO in 2023 and 2024 respectively; the substantial Western European defense-spending increase). The cumulative substantial post-1991 European international trajectory partially confirms the bipolar-to-unipolar transformation that some 1990s observers predicted but increasingly faces a substantial multipolar reorganization.

Postwar nationalism, ethnic conflict, and identity (KC-4.1.V). Topic 9.5 covered the substantial postwar nationalism and ethnic-conflict trajectory. The principal postwar European events of nationalism and ethnic conflict include the substantial 1945-1950 forced expulsion of approximately 12-14 million ethnic Germans from Czechoslovakia, Poland, and other Eastern European territories; the substantial 1950s and subsequent Cyprus and Northern Ireland conflicts (the Troubles 1968-1998); the substantial Basque ETA campaign (1959-2018); the substantial 1991-1995 Yugoslav wars (the Croatian War of Independence 1991-1995; the Bosnian War 1992-1995; the Kosovo War 1998-1999); the substantial 1992-1995 Bosnian genocide (the July 1995 Srebrenica massacre, the principal post-Holocaust European genocide); the substantial post-1989 Eastern European ethnic re-mobilization. The cumulative substantial twentieth- and early-twenty-first-century European nationalism trajectory partially confirms the broader twentieth-century pattern of substantial ethnic conflict but combines with substantial post-1989 institutional containment (the substantial European Union and Council of Europe human-rights framework; the substantial International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia 1993-2017).

Postwar economic-and-state transformation (KC-4.2). Topics 9.2, 9.4, 9.6, and 9.10 covered the substantial postwar economic-and-state trajectory. The principal substantial postwar Western European economic developments include the substantial 1947-1952 Marshall Plan (approximately 13 billion dollars in U.S. assistance to 16 Western European countries); the substantial Trente Glorieuses and Wirtschaftswunder (the Western European 1945-1973 substantial economic boom that approximately quadrupled Western European real GDP per capita); the substantial 1957-1992 European Economic Community trajectory and the substantial 1992 Maastricht Treaty creation of the European Union; the substantial 1999-2002 euro launch and subsequent eurozone expansion; the substantial 2008-2012 substantial euro debt crisis (Greek, Irish, Portuguese, Spanish, Cypriot, Italian crises) and the substantial subsequent European Stability Mechanism creation; the substantial 2020 Next Generation EU recovery instrument creation. The Eastern European 1945-1989 substantial command-economy period and the substantial 1989-onward shock-therapy or gradual market transition produced substantial uneven economic outcomes. The cumulative substantial postwar Western European economic trajectory anchors KC-4.2's substantial state-economy reorganization.

The principal substantial postwar Western European state developments combined the substantial welfare-state expansion (the British 1942 Beveridge Report and the substantial 1945-1948 Attlee government welfare-state founding; the substantial Western European 1945-1975 welfare-state development including the principal social-democratic, Christian-democratic, and continental-corporatist national variants; the substantial 1980s-onward neoliberal reform challenges) with the substantial 1945-onward Western European parliamentary-democratic consolidation (the substantial 1944 French Fourth Republic; the substantial 1949 West German Federal Republic; the substantial 1948 Italian Republic; the substantial 1958 Fifth Republic Constitution; the substantial 1974-1976 Portuguese, Greek, and Spanish democratic transitions). The cumulative substantial postwar Western European democratic-and-welfare consolidation produced the substantial post-1989 framework that the substantial Eastern European post-1989 transitions sought to replicate.

Twentieth- and twenty-first-century cultural and intellectual life (KC-4.3, KC-4.3.I.ii). Topics 9.8, 9.11, 9.12, 9.13, and 9.14 covered the substantial postwar cultural-and-intellectual trajectory. The principal substantial postwar Western European intellectual developments combine the substantial existentialist and post-existentialist trajectory (Sartre, Camus, Beauvoir, Merleau-Ponty); the substantial Frankfurt School critical-theory tradition (Adorno, Horkheimer, Marcuse, Habermas); the substantial structuralist and post-structuralist trajectory (Levi-Strauss, Foucault, Derrida, Lyotard); the substantial postmodernist position (Lyotard 1979; Baudrillard); the substantial second-wave feminist trajectory (Beauvoir 1949; the substantial 1960s-onward second-wave movement); the substantial post-Vatican II Catholic theological development; the substantial broader twentieth-century European philosophical, sociological, and humanistic-scientific tradition. KC-4.3.I.ii anchors the substantial twentieth-century intellectual rupture that the world wars and the depression produced; the cumulative postwar intellectual trajectory both extends and substantially modifies that rupture.

The principal substantial postwar Western European cultural developments combine the substantial visual-arts, architecture, music, and literary trajectory (Topic 9.14 covered); the substantial post-Vatican II Catholic and Protestant religious trajectory; the substantial post-1965 substantial Western European secularization (church attendance falling from approximately 60-80 percent to approximately 5-25 percent across most Western European countries); the substantial post-1989 Eastern European religious revival; the substantial post-2015 substantial Western European Muslim-population integration challenges; the substantial 1968 cultural mobilization; the substantial post-1968 women's, gay-and-lesbian, civil-rights, environmental, and broader social-movement trajectory; the substantial late-twentieth- and early-twenty-first-century European technological-and-globalization transformation (Topics 9.12 and 9.13 covered).

Twentieth- and twenty-first-century social, economic, and demographic transformation (KC-4.4, KC-4.4.III). Topics 9.8, 9.11, and 9.14 covered the substantial postwar social and demographic trajectory. The principal substantial postwar Western European demographic developments combine the substantial 1947-1965 baby boom (approximately 80 million Western European baby-boomers); the substantial 1965-onward fertility decline (Western European total fertility falling from approximately 2.7-2.9 to approximately 1.5 children per woman); the substantial postwar massive migration trajectory (the substantial 1945-1950 forced postwar expulsions; the substantial 1950s-onward decolonization-driven migration; the substantial 1960s-onward guest-worker programs; the substantial post-2015 substantial refugee crisis); the substantial population aging across Western Europe (the median age rising from approximately 30 in the 1960s to approximately 44 in 2020). The substantial post-2015 European migration crisis (over 1 million refugees in 2015 alone, principally from Syria, Afghanistan, and sub-Saharan Africa) substantially reorganized European political and cultural life.

The principal substantial postwar Western European social and civil-rights developments include the substantial second-wave feminist trajectory (Topic 9.8 covered); the substantial postwar gay-and-lesbian-rights trajectory (the substantial 1960s-onward Western European decriminalization; the substantial 2001-onward substantial same-sex-marriage legalization); the substantial postwar disability-rights, environmental, and broader human-rights trajectory; the substantial 1968 cultural mobilization (Topic 9.14 covered); the substantial 1970s-onward European Court of Human Rights expansion; the substantial European Union Charter of Fundamental Rights (proclaimed 7 December 2000; legally binding from 1 December 2009 with the Lisbon Treaty); the substantial twenty-first-century European #MeToo (October 2017 onward), Friday for Future climate (2018 onward), and Black Lives Matter (2020 onward) movements that substantially extended the broader 1968-onward civil-rights trajectory. KC-4.4.III anchors the substantial postwar civil-rights expansion.

The Skill 6.D modified-argument approach. Topic 9.15's suggested skill is 6.D (Argumentation: corroborate, qualify, or modify an argument using diverse and alternative evidence to develop a complex argument). The skill applies particularly to the substantial Unit 9 content because the substantial 1945-present European trajectory admits multiple substantial competing interpretations. Students should construct a substantial argument that the substantial 1945-present European transformation involved both substantial continuity and substantial change; that the principal long-running continuities (the substantial state-building, welfare-state expansion, and democratic consolidation; the substantial trans-European integration trajectory; the substantial late-twentieth-century cultural-and-civil-rights expansion) substantially anchor the unit-wide narrative; that the substantial discontinuities (the substantial 1945 rupture; the substantial 1968 cultural mobilization; the substantial 1989-1991 Eastern bloc collapse; the substantial post-2008 financial crisis; the substantial post-2015 migration crisis; the substantial 2022-onward Russian-Ukraine war reorganization) substantially modify but do not entirely overturn the broader continuity narrative. The substantial argumentation must qualify and corroborate the broader unit-wide narrative across multiple substantial dimensions.

Three short excerpts anchor Topic 9.15: Winston Churchill's March 1946 articulation of the substantial Cold War polarization that opened Unit 9; the 25 March 1957 Treaty of Rome preamble that opened the substantial European integration trajectory; and the 21 November 1990 CSCE Charter of Paris that articulated the substantial post-1989 European framework.

1. Argue, using diverse and alternative evidence drawn from across Unit 9, the extent to which the substantial 1945-present European transformation reflects substantial continuity versus substantial change. Identify at least three specific continuities and three specific discontinuities, and qualify your overall position. (Skill 6.D direct practice; Reasoning Continuity and Change.)
2. Compare Churchill's March 1946 articulation of the Cold War polarization (Source 1) with the November 1990 CSCE Charter of Paris articulation of the post-Cold War European framework (Source 3). What aspects of Churchill's 1946 substantial diagnosis did the 1990 framework substantially address, and what aspects did it not address? (Connects KC-4.1, KC-4.1.IV; Skill 4.B comparison.)
3. Account for the substantial 25 March 1957 Treaty of Rome's articulation of "ever closer union" (Source 2) against the substantial subsequent twentieth- and twenty-first-century European integration trajectory. Where has the substantial integration project genuinely realized the 1957 vision, and where has it substantially fallen short? (Connects KC-4.2; Skill 6.D modified argument.)
4. Account for the substantial post-1989 substantial European institutional reorganization including the substantial NATO and EU eastward enlargements, the substantial 1992 Maastricht Treaty, the substantial 1999-2002 euro launch, and the substantial 2009 Lisbon Treaty. To what extent did the substantial post-1989 institutional reorganization fundamentally transform the European order, and to what extent did it substantially extend the substantial pre-1989 Western European institutional framework? (Connects KC-4.2; reasoning Continuity and Change.)
5. Account for the substantial twenty-first-century European challenges including the substantial 2008-2012 euro debt crisis, the substantial 2015-2016 migration crisis, the substantial 2016 Brexit referendum, the substantial 2020-2022 COVID-19 pandemic, and the substantial 2022-onward Russian-Ukraine war disruption. How do these substantial twenty-first-century challenges substantially modify the broader 1945-2008 European postwar narrative? (Connects KC-4.1.V, KC-4.4.III.D; Skill 6.D modified argument.)
6. Argue, using the substantial cumulative Unit 9 evidence, whether the substantial 1945-present European transformation was principally driven by external pressures (the U.S.-Soviet Cold War polarization; the substantial decolonization; the substantial post-1991 globalization), by internal European dynamics (the substantial postwar reconstruction; the substantial integration project; the substantial 1968 cultural mobilization), or by some substantial combination of both. Substantially qualify your overall position. (Connects all eight unit-wide KCs; Skill 6.D modified argument.)